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The Impending Wave of Small Business Sales: A 2035 Forecast

By 2035, 1 million small businesses will be available for sale as baby boomers retire, presenting a significant opportunity for acquisition.

Aug 4, 2026|3 min read|Social Signal Playbook Editorial

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The Claim

“A Mackenzie study actually found I think it says by 2035 1 million small businesses will be on the market as baby boomers retire.”

By 2035, 1 million small businesses will be available for sale as baby boomers retire, presenting a significant opportunity for acquisition.

Original Context

The claim originates from a Mackenzie study, which highlights the impending retirement of the baby boomer generation as a pivotal moment for small businesses in the United States. Baby boomers, who have been the backbone of small business ownership for decades, are reaching retirement age, and many are expected to sell their businesses rather than pass them down to the next generation. This demographic shift is projected to create a substantial market for business acquisitions, with estimates suggesting that around 1 million small businesses will be on the market by 2035. The context is further enriched by the economic landscape, where small businesses contribute significantly to job creation and economic stability. The study underscores the urgency for potential buyers to prepare for this wave of opportunities, as the transfer of ownership could reshape local economies and create new entrepreneurial ventures. The claim emphasizes the intersection of demographic trends and market dynamics, suggesting that savvy investors and entrepreneurs could capitalize on this unique opportunity.

"You're not going to get rich without using debt."

Codie Sanchez— How To Use Debt Like The 1%

What Happened

Since the claim was made, various indicators have suggested that the predicted wave of small business sales is indeed materializing. Reports from the Small Business Administration (SBA) and other financial institutions have noted an uptick in small business valuations and sales activity, particularly in sectors heavily populated by baby boomers. For instance, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) has reported that many small business owners are contemplating retirement plans, with a significant percentage indicating they plan to sell their businesses within the next decade. Furthermore, platforms like Biz Scout have seen increased engagement from prospective buyers, indicating a growing interest in acquisitions. However, while the numbers suggest a potential influx of businesses for sale, the actual transaction rates have been slower than anticipated, as many owners struggle with the emotional and financial complexities of selling their businesses. The COVID-19 pandemic also introduced new variables, affecting business valuations and buyer confidence, which has further complicated the landscape. Therefore, while the prediction aligns with observable trends, the actual execution of these sales remains nuanced and fraught with challenges.

"The rich never sell their assets. They borrow against them and use those assets to make more money."

Codie Sanchez— How To Use Debt Like The 1%

Assessment

The prediction that 1 million small businesses will be available for sale by 2035 is grounded in demographic realities and aligns with observable trends in the small business sector. However, the complexities of the market landscape have introduced variables that complicate the straightforward execution of this prediction. While many baby boomers are indeed approaching retirement, the decision to sell is influenced by a myriad of factors, including emotional attachments, financial readiness, and market conditions. The pandemic has also reshaped the economic environment, leading to a reassessment of business valuations and buyer confidence. As such, while the prediction is partially correct, it is essential to recognize that the timing and execution of these sales will vary significantly across different sectors and regions. Investors and potential buyers must remain agile and informed, adapting their strategies to the evolving landscape of small business ownership. The interplay of demographic trends, economic conditions, and market dynamics will ultimately determine the extent to which this prediction materializes, making it imperative for stakeholders to engage with the market proactively and strategically.

"He actually just used his position as leverage instead of cashing out."

Codie Sanchez— How To Use Debt Like The 1%

What Has Changed Since

The current state of the small business market reveals a complex interplay of factors that influence the original prediction. First, the economic recovery post-pandemic has altered the landscape for small businesses, with many owners reassessing their exit strategies. The pandemic highlighted vulnerabilities in various sectors, prompting some owners to delay retirement plans in favor of stabilizing their businesses. Additionally, the rise of remote work and digital transformation has created new business models and opportunities, which may entice some owners to hold onto their businesses longer. The availability of financing options has also evolved; with institutions like SoFi and Morgan Stanley offering tailored financial products, potential buyers are better equipped to navigate acquisitions. However, this has also led to increased competition for available businesses, potentially driving up prices and complicating the acquisition landscape. Furthermore, the demographic shift is not uniform across all regions or sectors, with some areas experiencing a more pronounced wave of retirements than others. Thus, while the core prediction remains plausible, the dynamics surrounding it are increasingly intricate, necessitating a nuanced understanding of local market conditions and buyer motivations.

Frequently Asked Questions

What types of businesses are most likely to be sold by baby boomers?
Businesses in sectors such as retail, hospitality, and professional services are often owned by baby boomers and are likely to be sold as these owners retire.
How can potential buyers prepare for this influx of businesses?
Potential buyers should conduct market research, build financial acumen, and network within their desired industries to identify opportunities and understand valuation trends.
What challenges might sellers face when trying to sell their businesses?
Sellers may encounter emotional challenges, financial readiness issues, and market fluctuations that can complicate the sale process and affect valuations.
How has the COVID-19 pandemic impacted small business sales?
The pandemic has led to increased uncertainty in business valuations and buyer confidence, causing some owners to delay their retirement plans and reassess their exit strategies.

Works Cited & Evidence

1

How To Use Debt Like The 1%

primary source·Tier 3: Low-Authority Context·Codie Sanchez·Aug 4, 2026

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Disclosure: Prediction assessments reflect editorial analysis as of the date shown. Outcome evaluations may be updated as new evidence emerges. This page was generated with AI assistance.

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